Weather influence n US vote
3rd November, 2016
Not only does bad weather affect the mood of a nation it can also have a profound effect on the fortunes of a country. With Tuesday’s US Presidential election only around the corner, will the weather forecasts favour the Republicans or the Democrats?
No significant snowfall or extreme weather is forecast on Election Day but a swathe of downpours may deter some voters in central states. But with tranquil weather forecast over much of the country, voter turnout could well be boosted among some demographics
"Weather was found to be, on average, nearly 20 percent of the change in voter turnout based on our analysis," according to AccuWeather’s Tim Loftus who has conducted research that analyses the weather trends and voter data for primary elections dating as far back as 1996. His conclusion is that the weather does have an impact on how some voters respond when making a decision to head to the polls.
Loftus said, “Democrats are more weather-sensitive, when compared to Republicans and among the most weather-sensitive were African-Americans, those 65 and older and 18-24 year-olds".
Early next week, a storm system will push slowly eastward across the country. While the storm does not appear to be very strong, there will be the potential for downpours to cause travel delays. So people heading to the polls where long lines are common will want to take along an umbrella.
The vast majority of the country will enjoy dry weather and sunshine on Election Day which could help boost voter turnout.
So, with no extreme or unexpected winter weather to deal with, it all looks set for a high turnout. But we’ll have to see whether it’s Donald trump or Hilary Clinton that benefits from the mild conditions.
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